Statistics Distribution

ANSWERS

1. Use the sales forecasters prediction to draw and quarter a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and collection its mean and standard deviation.

permits draw our vignette first:

20,0
00
.025
10,0
00
30,0
00
.025
.95

At x = 30,000,

Normal distribution

2. write in code the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team.

2. for 15,000 units




P(stockout) = 0.3365 + 0.5000 = 0.8365

for 18,000 units

P(stockout) = 0.1517 + 0.5000 = 0.6517

for 24,000 units

P (stockout) = 0.5000 - 0.2823 = 0.2177

for 28,000 units

P (stockout) = 0.5000 - 0.4418 = 0.0582

3. Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: worst lawsuit in which sales = 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales = 20,000 units, and best case in which sales = 30,000 units.





Lets calculate the projected profits for each measuring:

for 15,000 units

 |  | gross revenue|  |
Unit Sales| Total Cost| at $24| at $5| Profit|
10,000| 240,000| 240,000| 25,000| 25,000|
20,000| 240,000| 360,000| 0| 120,000|
30,000| 240,000| 360,000| 0| 120,000|


for 18,000 units

 |  | Sales|  |
Unit Sales| Total Cost| at $24| at $5| Profit|
10,000| 288,000| 240,000| 40,000| -8,000|
20,000| 288,000| 432,000| 0| 144,000|
30,000| 288,000| 432,000| 0| 144,000|

for 24,000 units

 |  | Sales|  |
Unit Sales| Total Cost| at $24| at $5| Profit|
10,000| 384,000| 240,000| 70,000| -74,000|
20,000| 384,000| 480,000| 20,000| 116,000|
30,000| 384,000| 576,000| 0| 192,000|

for 28,000 units

 |  | Sales|  |
Unit Sales| Total Cost| at $24| at $5| Profit|
10,000| 448,000| 240,000| 90,000|...If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Orderessay



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